Rowanbank Wealth Management

Rowanbank Wealth Management

Dear RPOAS Members,
On Tuesday, 3 March 2026, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves delivered the latest Spring forecast statement, reflecting the insights of the independent Budget Responsibility Committee of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). Click HERE to read our guide to the Spring Forecast 2026.

Reeves defended the government’s economic strategy, describing it as the “right one” for the nation. She also announced progress in reducing borrowing, with projections showing a nearly £18bn decrease. Charting a course through uncertainty. Addressing the House of Commons, Reeves emphasised the growing importance of the government’s economic plan in an increasingly uncertain global landscape. She reaffirmed the commitment to guiding the economy through challenges and shielding households from external shocks. Reeves cited easing inflation and lower borrowing costs as signs of progress, noting that the OBR’s latest forecasts confirm the government’s strategy is delivering results. Updated economic forecasts.

The latest projections present a mixed outlook for the UK economy. Economic growth is now expected to reach 1.1% in 2026, a slight decrease from the 1.4% forecast in November. On a more positive note, inflation is predicted to fall faster than anticipated, reaching 2.3% in 2026 and hitting the Bank of England’s 2% target by the end of the year. Employment and fiscal resilience.

While inflation is easing, the job market faces new challenges. Unemployment is expected to peak at 5.3%, up from the 4.9% forecast in the Autumn Budget. Despite this, the government has strengthened its financial defences, with fiscal headroom rising from £21.7bn to £23.6bn, providing a critical buffer against potential economic shocks. However, the OBR’s forecast does not account for the impact of rising energy prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East. This global turmoil could reignite inflation and delay anticipated interest rate cuts, as rising oil and gas prices have already triggered a sell-off in gilts.

What could the Spring forecast 2026 mean for you?
In these uncertain times, understanding how economic shifts could affect your personal finances or business is crucial for long-term stability. We are here to help you navigate these changes with confidence. If you need further information, please contact us for tailored guidance and support.

Kind regards
Dean Ballingall
Managing Director